[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 050437
HLSMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1137 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...KAREN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND GULF COAST
WATERS AND BAYS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
UPPER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...LOWER BALDWIN...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...COASTAL
SANTA ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND COASTAL OKALOOSA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL
OF THE BAYS AND SOUNDS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND
GULF WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1000 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.5 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR
45 MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR KAREN HAS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE MAY PRODUCE 2 TO 3 FEET OF TOTAL INUNDATION
FROM THE UPPER REACHES OF MOBILE BAY AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS TO THE ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER. ONE TO TWO FEET OF
INUNDATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
DURING THE HOURS SURROUNDING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE
OBSERVED WITH A SLOWER WATER RECESSION ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND GUSTS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS
BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 MPH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FURTHER INLAND.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY ESPECIALLY IF THE CENTER
OF KAREN PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AT THIS TIME. CLOSELY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL
STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE AROUND 530 AM CDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

ALZ061>064-051245-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
1137 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE MAY PRODUCE 2 TO 3 FEET OF TOTAL INUNDATION FROM THE
UPPER REACHES OF MOBILE BAY AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
SOUNDS TO THE ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER. DURING THE HOURS
SURROUNDING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IS WHEN THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE OBSERVED WITH A
SLOW WATER RECESSION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE SUNDAY
EVENING. SPOTTY MODERATE TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-10.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO HIGH SURF
DUE TO POUNDING BREAKERS WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION.

$$

FLZ001>006-051245-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
1137 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE 1 TO 2 FEET OF INUNDATION IS
FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY UNCERTAINTY...THIS COULD
BE LOWER. DURING THE HOURS SURROUNDING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY
EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS
SHOULD BE OBSERVED WITH A SLOW WATER RECESSION DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SPOTTY MODERATE TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I-10.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO HIGH SURF
DUE TO POUNDING BREAKERS WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION.

$$

GMZ630>632-051245-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
1137 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. BAY WATERS BECOME VERY
ROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

$$

GMZ633-051245-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PERDIDO BAY-
1137 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. BAY WATERS
BECOME VERY ROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

$$

GMZ634-051245-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
1137 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING. BAY WATERS
BECOME VERY ROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

GMZ635-051245-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
1137 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BAY WATERS BECOME VERY ROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

GMZ650-655-670-675-051245-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1137 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS MAY
APPROACH THE 10 TO 16 FEET RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

$$




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