[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 050404
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...KAREN LOSING PUNCH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND BIG BEND.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTH WALTON...COASTAL BAY AND COASTAL GULF.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO THE
APALACHICOLA OUT TO 60 NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...OR 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4N...LONGITUDE 90.5W. THIS WAS ABOUT
470 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL...OR ABOUT 390 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH NORTHWEST AT
7 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE STORM IS LIKELY TO
TAKE A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST LATER ON SATURDAY.
ON SUCH A COURSE...THE STORM WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A
LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.

KAREN REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED AND HAS WEAKENED DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STABLE
INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL...BUT SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS KAREN NEARS THE
COAST. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION...PEOPLE
ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS CLOSELY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FLZ108-112-114-051200-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 /1104 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013/

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.

STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 35 TO 40
PERCENT. THIS IS ROUGHLY UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH
STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF
STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1
TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
STORM SURGE ZONE.

THE STORM SURGE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT UPON THE INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF KAREN...SO FUTURE CHANGES IN EITHER OF THOSE WOULD AFFECT THE
STORM SURGE FORECAST.

...INLAND FLOODING...
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
MINOR FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH TROPICAL STORM
KAREN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING
TO EARLY MONDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS AND SURF...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT PANHANDLE BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BREAKERS OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...
INCREASING TO 6 TO 10 FEET BY SUNDAY AS KAREN NEARS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THESE WAVES WILL GENERATE LIFE- THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AS WELL AS MINOR BEACH EROSION.

$$

FLZ115-051200-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-
1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT FRANKLIN COUNTY
BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY AT
THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME
NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD INCREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH
STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF
STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1
TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
STORM SURGE ZONE.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH TROPICAL STORM
KAREN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING
TO EARLY MONDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT FRANKLIN COUNTY BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BREAKERS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

$$

FLZ118-127-128-134-051200-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-
1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
APALACHEE BAY AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL
FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS
BECOME NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD INCREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW TO MODERATE
IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE
COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS
TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 3 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HEAD OF
APALACHEE BAY IN WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...AND NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTIES.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
THE COASTAL AREAS OF APALACHEE BAY.

$$

GMZ750-770-051200-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS AROUND
40 TO 45 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...MAINLY TO
THE WEST OF CAPE SAN BLAS. IF FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM
KAREN SHIFT FURTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 16 TO 20 FEET AS KAREN MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

...WATERSPOUTS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO MONDAY.

$$







This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net