[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 211121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF BARRY IS IN
MEXICO...1009 MB...NEAR 20N99W IN MEXICO. THE MAIN
HAZARD THAT WILL BE AFFECTING LAND WILL BE THE
CONTINUED RAINFALL. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...
IN SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE THREAT OF MAY PERSIST
IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AFTER THE LOW CENTER DISSIPATES.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...TO 24N94W AND 27N97W ALONG THE TEXAS
GULF COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS
OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 22N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W...
ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND
32W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 38W AND 45W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 25N72W...CURVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...CUTTING
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...TO 12N75W..ABOUT 60 NM
TO THE NORTH OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS WAVE
IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE
IS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 60W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WESTERN CUBA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W
AND 80W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N20W AND 8N24W. THE ITCZ
STARTS NEAR 7N26W AND IT CONTINUES TO 6N29W 9N37W
AND 9N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND 16W. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT ACCOMPANIES THE TWO ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WAVES IS IN THE ITCZ. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE
EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHERN GEORGIA TO 29N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART
OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT MEANDERS FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ALONG 30N/
31N TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTH OF
23N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W
30N77W TO 28N80W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY-TO-NORTH-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 86W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH LOUISIANA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N92W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE AREA
OF THE REMNANT LOW OF BARRY. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF
86W...MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND
MERGING INTO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N59W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 30N67W 28N76W...CROSSING FLORIDA ALONG
27N/28N...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 29N91W...TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COASTAL PLAINS
THAT ARE NEAR 23N98W.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN TEXAS IN MCALLEN
AND ALICE...IN FLORIDA IN CRESTVIEW IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...IN TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY. A HIGH CLOUD
CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION
IN NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES
AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL
PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KBBF...KHQI...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/
CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST
OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
32N67W-TO-HISPANIOLA-TO-NORTHERN COLOMBIA TROUGH
SPANS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 20N TO THE WEST
OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN
COLOMBIA...INTO CENTRAL PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE 9N77W AT THE
COLOMBIA COAST AND 14N83W AT THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN
67W AND 80W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N71W...TO A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST
OF HAITI...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA NEAR
9N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WESTERN CUBA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W
AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC FOR BERMUDA WAS 0.36 OF AN
INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLE.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE
TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THE 250 MB
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. BROAD
SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST NEAR
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 29N47W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 35N BETWEEN 37W AND
57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N54W 20N56W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A 24N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N28W AND 10N28W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SURROUNDS THE AREA OF THE TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N59W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 30N67W 28N76W...CROSSING FLORIDA ALONG
27N/28N...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 29N91W...TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COASTAL PLAINS
THAT ARE NEAR 23N98W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 29N54W
20N56W SURFACE TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN
70W AND 73W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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