[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY AT
21/0300 UTC IS NEAR 19.6N 98.2W...MOVING WESTWARD
5 KNOTS. THE POSITION OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS IN MEXICO ABOUT 51 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MEXICO CITY...AND 116 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF
VERACRUZ. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS
TO MEXICO BETWEEN 86W AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
COAST OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN MEXICO IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN
93W AND 96W...FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W...
AND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...
AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG
THE MEXICO COAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 19N
TO 22N.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 44W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 24N70W...CURVING TO HAITI...TO 12N73W
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 60W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WESTERN CUBA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W
AND 80W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 7N24W
AND IT CONTINUES TO 7N30W 8N35W 9N39W 9N43W 7N50W...
ACROSS NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA INTO CENTRAL SURINAME.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 8N IN SIERRA LEONE TO 10N IN GUINEA
BETWEEN 12W AND 14W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 31W...AND FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
GEORGIA TO 29N87W IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
MEANDERS FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ALONG 30N/31N
TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING IN FLORIDA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AND FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
WESTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE...AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W
TO 27N80W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST
OF 86W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES THROUGH LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 26N92W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPIRALS
AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 25. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE
EAST OF 86W...MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
INTO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N59W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 30N67W 28N76W...CROSSING FLORIDA ALONG
27N/28N...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 29N91W...TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COASTAL PLAINS
THAT ARE NEAR 23N98W.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN TEXAS AT...
BROWNSVILLE...PORT ISABEL...AND AT ALICE...AND IN
LOUISIANA AT BAY ST. LOUIS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER
ARE BEING OBSERVED AT LAKE PALOURDE/AMELIA IN
LOUISIANA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED
AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA...
AND IN VALPARAISO IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S.A.
GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST
OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
BERMUDA-TO-HISPANIOLA-TO-NORTHERN COLOMBIA TROUGH
SPANS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 20N TO THE WEST
OF 80W.

NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN NICARAGUA FROM 12N
TO 14N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT ENCOMPASSES THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N75W IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PANAMA THAT ARE ALONG 80W...INTO WESTERN PANAMA
AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 10N88W...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA ALONG 77W
TO 11N ALONG 80W. REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE COAST OF COSTA RICA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN FROM 9N TO 10N. NUMEROUS STRONG IN LAKE
MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. REMNANT
RAINSHOWERS FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOT AND
8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN
65W AND 82W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...26N71W...TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
NEAR 20N73W JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
HAITI...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N77W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WESTERN CUBA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W
AND 80W.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE 48 PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL BE
REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THE 250 MB TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
IN PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
24 HOURS OR SO. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 29N47W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 35N BETWEEN 37W AND
57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 23N TO
29N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A 24N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N28W AND 10N28W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SURROUNDS THE AREA OF THE TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N59W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 30N67W 28N76W...CROSSING FLORIDA ALONG
27N/28N...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 29N91W...TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COASTAL PLAINS
THAT ARE NEAR 23N98W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 52W/53W
SURFACE TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN
68W AND 72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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