[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 181435
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE CENTER IS BECOMING VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE
DEPRESSION STILL HAS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY A
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MOST OF THE YUCATAN
PENISULA. BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...THERE IS A
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE CIRCULATION COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH LATER TODAY WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER LAND.
HOWEVER...IF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  EVEN IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS
FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED SINCE A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 300
DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW
RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS WHICH IN FACT
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE HISTORICAL SLIGHT
NORTHWARD BIAS OBSERVED IN THE MODELS IN THIS AREA...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS PLACED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
ALTHOUGH A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 17.9N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 18.1N  91.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  19/1200Z 18.7N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  20/0000Z 19.0N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  20/1200Z 19.1N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  21/1200Z 19.2N  96.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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