[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 88.4W AT 17/2100
UTC OR 10 NM NE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE MOVING WNW AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM  CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 86W-
92W...AND FROM 22N-23N BETWEEN 79W-86W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 81W-87W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N59W TO 6N60W MOVING WNW NEAR 15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND HAS LARGELY BEEN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ TRACKING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE IS WITHIN AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE THAT SPREADS EASTWARD NEAR THE ITCZ
REGION DUE TO FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 60W-65W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 47W-59W. IT IS
ANTICIPATED THE WAVE WILL TRACK W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TOWARDS THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ABC ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW OVER
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N15W TO 10N19W 7N25W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
7N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N40W 7N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 23N-
30N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 32W-35W. CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE WESTWARD PORTION OF THE ITCZ IS DISCUSSED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 27N
CONTINUING INTO THE WEST ATLC. ALOFT...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
COVERS THE FAR WESTERN GULF AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
WEST...WHILE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS ALSO OUTFLOW NEAR T.D. TWO. BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER RIDGES IS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR COVERS THE BASIN...EXCEPT NEAR THE SE
CORNER ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM T.D. TWO. THE DRY AIR IS
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH THE AREA. STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND CUBA SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 79W-
92W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE BASIN.
T.D. TWO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SW GULF AND WILL
PROVIDE MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THAT AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.D. TWO IS PROVIDING MOIST AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. BESIDES CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 80W-83W ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
IS DRAWING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...BUT
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
DUST...WHICH IS BEING REPORTED BY MANY STATIONS. TRADEWIND FLOW
OF 20-25 KT IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE BASIN AND CONTINUING NEAR
THE DEPRESSION. A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAY
BEGIN TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD INTO THE AREA. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN AS T.D. TWO MOVES WNW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...
HISPANIOLA REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL EXCEPT FOR A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERABLE LESS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING COMPARED TO MOST AFTERNOONS. THIS LIKELY TO DUE TO DRY
AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST...AND THE PRESENCE
OF DUST IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY 48 HOURS AS
MOISTURE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVES
INTO THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 65W WITH AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 24N65W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF
23N BETWEEN 59W-65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO PRESENT FROM
32N62W TO 27N67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1034 AZORES HIGH. ALOFT...AN
UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 54W...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG
45W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 34W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
FAR EASTERN ATLC ALONG 20W. THE TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUES TO HAVE
A BROAD SAHARAN AIR LAYER STRETCHING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO
NEAR 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


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