[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 172040
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
500 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN HARD TO LOCATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN BELIZE. THE SYSTEM DID NOT STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
IN FACT BECAME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHED THE COAST.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE
GENEROUS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND...SOME OF IT
MOUNTAINOUS...FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREFORE IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE IN THAT TIME
FRAME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
AN EAST-WEST RIDGE WEAKENING...BUT REMAINING IN PLACE...OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  THE 1800 UTC TRACK GUIDANCE IS
SOMETHAT SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THIS MORNING...AND SO IS THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.  THE NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST GFS...HOWEVER THE NEW ECMWF MODEL RUN IS FARTHER SOUTH
AND SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO EMERGE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EASTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 16.4N  88.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 17.2N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/1800Z 17.9N  91.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/0600Z 18.4N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  19/1800Z 18.8N  94.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 19.3N  96.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  21/1800Z 19.5N  98.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA


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