[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 171509
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER.   THEREFORE THE SYSTEM HAS
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.  THE CENTER IS NEARING THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME FOR
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY
IF THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUESDAY AS
INDICATED BY THE NHC FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/11.  DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW
AN EAST-WEST RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
ECMWF TRACKS.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EASTERN MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 16.2N  87.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 16.9N  89.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/1200Z 18.0N  91.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/0000Z 18.8N  93.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  19/1200Z 19.3N  94.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  20/1200Z 19.7N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  21/1200Z 20.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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