[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 071453
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013
1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013

ANDREA CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT IS NOT
YET FRONTAL AND SOME CONVECTION IS STILL FORMING NEAR THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY A RECENT SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 KT AT THE OCEAN CREST PIER ON OAK
ISLAND NORTH CAROLINA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS STILL ASSUMED THAT
ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM AND BECOME THE DOMINANT SYSTEM NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ANDREA
SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THIS LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

ACCELERATION CONTINUES...AND ANDREA HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 035/24
KT.  THERE IS NOT MUCH SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
THE ENTIRE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED
WESTWARD...AND THIS SCENARIO KEEPS THE CENTER OF ANDREA...AND
POTENTIALLY SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS...CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST
COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO
NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 34.4N  79.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 37.5N  76.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  08/1200Z 41.8N  70.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/0000Z 45.3N  63.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/1200Z 46.8N  54.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/1200Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN


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