[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 310524
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE LOW REACHES THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER OR NOT THIS
DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT WILL LIKELY BRING
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR
ALOFT. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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