[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 302338
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE LOW REACHES THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER THIS
DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...IT WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND DRY AIR ALOFT.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HOURS
AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



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