[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 26.5W OR ABOUT 55 NM
WSW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 14 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUST TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-
15N BETWEEN 23W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 18N87W OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR 15N87W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
ROTATION IS E OF THE LOW/WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-25N ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN 80W-88W. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N41W
TO 13N41W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 22N53W TO
12N53W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES TO 18N20W WHERE IT BECOMES
DISRUPTED AND RESUMES W OF T.D. FIVE NEAR 13N28W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 13N40W TO 10N47W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 28W-46W AND
WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 49W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ACTIVITY IN THE SE GULF IS GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED OVER NW MEXICO EXTENDING AN AXIS E ACROSS ALONG THE N
GULF COAST TO THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE COVERING THE NW GULF N OF
24N W OF 86W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA INTO THE N GULF ALONG 28N90W TO 28N94W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N TO THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS BETWEEN 91W-97W. A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM OVER NE FLORIDA THROUGH THE UPPER
LOW NEAR 25N87W TO 22N90W THEN W OVER S MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN TO A
SECOND UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SW MEXICO. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE
GULF. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES WILL MOVE W-NW
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
WAVE WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY
CONTINUING OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W EARLY
FRI AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON
FRI NIGHT AND SAT REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA SAT NIGHT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE W CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING IS THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. SEE ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W EXTENDING INTO THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO AND IS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
21N82W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA TO ACROSS PUERTO RICO COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E
CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-79W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N/11N GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA TO NICARAGUA S OF 14N W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
WAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE W AND ONSHORE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN
REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON MON.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT WHEN AN INCREASE
OF MOISTURE AND THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND
INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S
OF 29N W OF 74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S
OF 27N W OF 76W INCLUDING S FLORIDA...CUBA...THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA..AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS
IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-33N BETWEEN 62W-69W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
GOES R INDICATES AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE
FROM AFRICA NEAR 26N15W TO 19N32W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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