[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WAS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE AT 15/0300 UTC. T.D. FIVE IS CENTERED
NEAR 14.2N 24.2W OR ABOUT 50 NM S-SE OF FOGO IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUST TO 40 KT.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WYNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS OF 13.5N25.5W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 22W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 18N85W OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR 14N84W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERS THE AREA WITH DISSIPATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-23N BETWEEN
79W-88W INCLUDING CUBA...CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
BY FRIDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N39W
TO 13N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE WAS RELOCATED AT
15/0000 UTC BASED ON LOW LEVEL WIND SIGNATURES. WAVE IS NOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP
CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 15/0000 UTC MAP FROM 22N54W TO
11N55W. THIS WAVE WAS A LOW TO MID LEVEL MID-LATITUDE FEATURE
THAT BECAME IN PHASE WITH A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 20N16W THROUGH WHAT IS NOW T.D. FIVE THEN ALONG 12N29W
14N40W TO 12N46W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 9N54W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 22W-29W...FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 29W-40W...AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 47W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER SW TEXAS EXTENDING AN AXIS E
ACROSS ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COVERING
THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND
TEXAS BETWEEN 89W-96W. A NARROW UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 25N87W EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS TO OVER NE FLORIDA AND SW
ALONG 22N91W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW OVER SW MEXICO. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA INTO THE N
GULF ALONG 28N90W TO 29N94W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE MOVING OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 86W TO OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER
THE GULF WITH A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94W.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES WILL MOVE W-NW THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WAVE WILL MOVE
NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THU CONTINUING OFFSHORE OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W EARLY FRI AND THEN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE N ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT REACHING
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA SAT NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT IS THE TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. SEE ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W EXTENDING INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO AND IS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N81W.AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TO
ACROSS PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 71W-79W INCLUDING JAMAICA...
HAITI...AND E CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NW
TONIGHT AND THU WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE E
CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON MON.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HAITI TONIGHT DUE TO
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT WHEN AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND INCREASING THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S
OF 28N W OF 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS E OF 74W TO OVER CUBA AND S FLORIDA
AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS IN THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 62W-69W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. GOES R
INDICATES AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST N OF 18N E OF 30W. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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