[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE W AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 17N20W THROUGH A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 13N21W TO 9N21W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC CURVATURE COVERS THE AREA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 18W-
27W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME IT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 22N83W
THROUGH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 16N83W TO 12N84W. WAVE IS MOVING
W NEAR 20 KT BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-NW NEAR 10-15 KT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE COVERS THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 13N-22N
BETWEEN 76W-88W INCLUDING JAMAICA...CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BE MORE MARGINAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N39W
THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N40W TO 10N40W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WAVE IS NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN IS NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE AND HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 14/0600 UTC ANALYSIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 16N17W THROUGH THE FIRST 1010 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE
THEN ALONG 13N33W TO THE SECOND 1010 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE TO
12N42W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N51W TO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 28W-39W...FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 40W-48W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 42W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER W TEXAS EXTENDING AN AXIS E
ACROSS ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COVERING
THE NW GULF W OF LINE FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
28N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 86W-93W. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA ALONG 23N90W TO VERACRUZ
MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N92W OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE S GULF S OF
24N BETWEEN 82W-96W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH IN THE
NW GULF NEAR 27N92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE W-NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT. THE S
PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD REACHING THE MEXICAN
COAST THIS WEEKEND OVER THE SW GULF ACCOMPANIED BY LOW
PRESSURE...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE N PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MERGE WITH A TROUGH MOVING E THROUGH THE NE
GULF WATERS FRI THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
JAMAICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND THE ASSOCIATED
ACTIVITY ARE DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ALONG 9N75W TO ACROSS COSTA
RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF PANAMA TO S NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA
BETWEEN 69W-71W. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE AND THE SURFACE
LOW...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
OF HONDURAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL WILL
MOVE ACROSS E CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE S COAST BETWEEN
69W-71W. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT WHEN AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 68W TO OVER GEORGIA AND
ANCHORED NEAR 30N72W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
28N61W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 65W
FROM 26N-32N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 58W-65W AND WITHIN 90 NM
W OF THE TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF
HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. GOES R INDICATES AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST WITHIN 225/250 NM OF LINE FROM AFRICA NEAR 25N16W
TO 22N30W 18N46W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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