[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W
THROUGH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 16N81W TO 12N82W. WAVE HAS BEEN
MOVING W-NW NEAR 20 KT BUT IS EXPECTED TO NOW MOVE NW NEAR 10-15
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 13N-21N BETWEEN 75W-87W INCLUDING
JAMAICA...CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS COULD BE MORE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM IS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE W AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 19N18W THROUGH A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N18W TO 10N17W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERS THE AREA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN THE
COAST OF W AFRICA AND 25W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME IT
WILL BE MOVING TOWARD COOLER WATER AND DRIER AIR WHICH COULD
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N38W
THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N39W TO 10N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND REMAINS WELL
DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N66W
ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 11N66W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 65W-68W INCLUDING THE S COAST OF PUERTO
RICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W THROUGH THE FIRST 1010 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE
THEN ALONG 14N34W TO THE SECOND 1010 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE TO
9N46W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N50W TO 8N55W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 25W-31W...FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 31W-38W...AND
FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 38W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER W TEXAS EXTENDING AN AXIS E
ACROSS ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COVERING
THE NW GULF W OF LINE FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N TO INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA BETWEEN 87W-92W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE
FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE TYPICAL EVENING SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 24N89W ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER S MEXICO
NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN TO 17N92W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE S GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 81W-95W.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO
OVER THE GULF WITH A 1016 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W-NW THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE WED. THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD REACHING THE MEXICAN COAST THIS WEEKEND
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
21N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MERGE WITH A TROUGH MOVING E THROUGH THE NE GULF WATERS FRI
THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR
17N76W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND THE ASSOCIATED
ACTIVITY IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
N OF 13N BETWEEN 68W-75W. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NW
THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDDAY THU WITH POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS E
CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE
USUAL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT WHEN AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 66W TO OVER GEORGIA AND
ANCHORED NEAR 31N71W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
29N62W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 60W
FROM 24N-29N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 57W-67W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE
TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N44W AND A 1026 MB
HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. GOES R INDICATES AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
WITHIN 300/325 NM OF LINE FROM AFRICA NEAR 25N15W TO 24N31W
19N45W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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