[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 8N17W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-35W TO 1N39W THEN S OF
THE EQUATOR INTO BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 5N11W
TO 1N26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC. A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER GEORGIA TO OVER THE W FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
SAVANNAH GEORGIA ACROSS TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF TO
NEAR 29N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH MAINLY OVER FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIA PENINSULA TO THE W
COAST OF THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-28N E OF 88W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE S GULF FROM 22N90W TO OVER THE W
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NW GUATEMALA NEAR 17N91W BUT IS NOT
PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS SOUTH
AMERICA TO OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO
CENTRAL CUBA CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AND COUPLED WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 73W-79W. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH INLAND OVER GEORGIA IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MOVING INTO
THE FAR W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 77W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE W ATLC. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING THE REMNANTS OF
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N48W ALONG 28N60W
TO 29N65W WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF THIS DISSIPATING FRONT ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH NEAR 25N52W AND EXTENDS W TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. A SECOND WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE E
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N32W
AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N28W TO 23N43W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL DRIFT E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES INTO THE W ATLC LATER TONIGHT
CONTINUING E THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN N OF THE AREA ON MON. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE W ATLC LATE MON AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC WED THROUGH THU. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE W ATLC WED THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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