[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR
6N10W TO 1N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N20W ALONG THE EQUATOR
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ
AXIS BOUNDARY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE U.S.
WITH A WEAK TROUGH TRAILING INTO THE NE GULF S OF ALABAMA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 29N IN THE EASTERN GULF. A AREA
OF LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS W
OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 27N AND 28N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA FROM A HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 25N EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC TO THE WESTERN GULF. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK FRONT NEARING THE TEXAS COAST
SUN NIGHT WILL LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MON AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHOUT REACHING THE NW GULF WATERS. AS
A RESULT...MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND KEEPING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF
THE AREA ALONG 25N WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS...
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TRAILING END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 55W AND 63W. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE SUN. A
FAIRLY WEAK RIDGE S OF THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND SHIFT E
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION
OF THE EAST COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH SUN...
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE TROPICS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF
THE COAST OF N FLORIDA TONIGHT THEN SLIDE EASTWARD...EXTENDING
FROM 31N74W TO 28N79W SUN MORNING...31N60W TO 27N70W SUN NIGHT
AND AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N55W TO 26N64W MON. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH REINFORCING COOLER AIR BEHIND IT WILL
BRING HIGHER WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELL TO THE AREA N OF 26N AND W
OF 55W THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE STRONGER COLD FRONT MON THROUGH TUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO
FRESH E-NE TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MUNDELL




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