[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W CONTINUING TO 4N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 4N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
AT 2S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 8W-16W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM
EQ-2N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AROUND A
1019 MB HIGH NEAR SE LOUISIANA AT 29N90W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND
THE RIDGE WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NOTED IN THE SW GULF. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO IN THE SW GULF ALONG 23N91W TO 18N92W
CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING EXTENDS SO THE SE GULF FROM THE W ATLC. BESIDES THE
EXTREME NW CORNER...DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA HELPING
PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES BASIN-WIDE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY BESIDES A
FEW PATCHES OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN S OF WRN
CUBA...OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND N OF PANAMA. ALOFT...MAINLY
SWLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN WITH MODERATE DRY AIR...WHICH IS
HELPING MAINTAIN THE FAIR CONDITIONS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15
KTS IS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS AROUND THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE HITTING THE
COAST OF PANAMA FLARING UP THE SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTLINE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENTS
INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST HAS REACHED THE ERN
CARIBBEAN WHERE SOME OF THE SURFACE STATIONS ARE REPORTING DUST.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC ALONG 64W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE LOW WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THAT HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WHICH ARE IMPACTING THE AREA. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N59W TO 23N68W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE AXIS. A
RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS TO THE W ALONG 32N63W 28N68W 28N76W.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. AN AREA OF
MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT TO THE SE OF THE FRONTS NEAR THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N-24N
BETWEEN 50W-59W. A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE FORMING IN THE THIS
AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS
ALONG 43W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
NEAR 34N38W. TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED AT 45N31W CONTINUING ACROSS THE AZORES
ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N25W AND
CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING FRONT TO 26N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ALSO COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 15N. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENTS INDICATE THAT AN
AREA OF AFRICAN DUST EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO THE ERN
CARIBBEAN MOSTLY S OF 20N REACHING FARTHER N ALONG THE AFRICAN
COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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