[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271034
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 4N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N22W TO
1N30W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AT 2S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT
2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN
18W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4S BETWEEN
30W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-1S BETWEEN
45W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF MISSISSIPPI AT
29N89W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE
WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND HOWEVER OVER S TEXAS FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 99W-101W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 93W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WHILE CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO. EXPECT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S TEXAS...NE
MEXICO...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AS WELL AS OVER THE SE
GULF...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E
CUBA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 20N74W TO 20N84W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE S OF W CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 21N90W TO GUATEMALA AT 14N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND RAIN ARE WITH 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. RAIN AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA... NICARAGUA...AND THE
COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER SOUTH AMERICA...
AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E
TO N HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W
TO E CUBA AT 20N74W. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
E OF THE FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER W ALONG
31N65W 28N71W 31N77W. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN
60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
34N41W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N26W TO 25N39W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 25W AS NOTED FROM THE
GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-80W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC
FRONTS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
20N E OF 40W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FAR W FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE ORIGINAL W
ATLANTIC FRONT. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO STEADILY
MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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