[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SMALL PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 3N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
WSW FROM 3N19W ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON AXIS W OF
20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN
34W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SE CONUS.
THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING INTO
THE NW GULF ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST FROM GALVESTON BAY ALONG
28N96W TO INLAND S OF CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR 27N97W. NWS DOPPLER
RADAR IMAGERY FROM CORPUS CHRISTI REVEALED NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SRN ALABAMA...SRN GEORGIA...AND NRN
FLORIDA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE NE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE
WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS MEXICO...AND
A WRN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. A
SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REACH THE NW GULF EARLY
MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE NRN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST ON THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS EVENING...LIMITING ANY STRONG
DEEP CONVECTION TO ONLY A FEW CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOP SHOWERS MOVING
WITH THE GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF NRN COLOMBIA GUSTING TO
25 KT. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA W OF 57W...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STATIONARY
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF BERMUDA
NEAR 32N62W WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS TO
THE E OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...SUPPORTING ITS SURFACE 1013
MB REFLECTION NEAR 33N44W AS WELL AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
ANALYZED FROM 32N41W TO 23N40W TO 14N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50-90 NM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
ALSO...AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED SE WINDS GUSTING
TO NEAR GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
SSE FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 29N41W TO 24N43W. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT EXTENDS DETACHED FROM 290N46W TO 24N52W TO 22N58W
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR
THE AZORES. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST EARLY TUESDAY WITH LIMITED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net