[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0535 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SMALL PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
WSW FROM 5N18W ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 20W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 34W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SE CONUS.
THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING INTO
THE NW GULF ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST FROM GALVESTON BAY ALONG
28N96W TO INLAND S OF CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR 27N97W. NWS DOPPLER
RADAR IMAGERY FROM CORPUS CHRISTI REVEALED NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN ALABAMA...SRN GEORGIA
...AND NRN FLORIDA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NE GULF WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING
NW TO SE ACROSS MEXICO...AND A WRN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXTENDING A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL REACH THE NW GULF EARLY MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. A
THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS EVENING...LIMITING ANY STRONG
DEEP CONVECTION TO ONLY A FEW CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOP SHOWERS MOVING
WITH THE GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF NRN COLOMBIA GUSTING TO
25 KT. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA W OF 57W...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF BERMUDA NEAR
32N63W WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS TO THE E OF
THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...SUPPORTING ITS SURFACE 1016 MB
REFLECTION NEAR 30N51W. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW
CENTER ALONG 27N49W TO 23N57W. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE LOW CENTER REMAINS LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50-90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TO THE E
OF THIS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1013 MB
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N43W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM
THE LOW CENTER INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N40W TO 24N40W
THEN SW TO 20N41W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT TO 15N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
115 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN 100 NM AROUND THE
LOW CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES AND A 1034 MB
HIGH W OF PORTUGAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST EARLY TUESDAY WITH LIMITED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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