[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
05N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N15W TO 02N29W TO 03N39W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 28W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE N OF 21N. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS A VERY STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND A 1031 MB HIGH OVER SE
ALABAMA NEAR 31N86W...AND AN ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SE CONUS...GULF BASIN...AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL.
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE NW GULF WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC THAT DIPS SOUTHWARD TO A BASE IN THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 26N68W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W TO SOUTH OF JAMAICA NEAR
17N78W THEN CONTINUES AS A SHEAR LINE TO THE NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA BORDER NEAR 11N84W. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY HOWEVER IS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN STRONG W OF
74W GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
AROUND 04/0320 UTC DEPICTED THESE NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE
PLENTIFUL WITHIN E-NE TRADES AND A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 69W-75W...FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 63W-66W...
AND S OF 13N E OF 70W INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLIDING EASTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING GRADUALLY AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC OFFSHORE
OF THE EASTERN US SEABOARD AND EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG 67W TO A
BASE NEAR 26N. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 32N60W TO 25N65W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W AND
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT S OF 28N. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT AS DEPICTED BY AN EARLIER
ASCAT PASS AROUND 04/0142 UTC. S-SW WINDS ALSO REMAIN STRONG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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