[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N13W TO
05N19W TO 04N26W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W TO 01S47W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 26W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE N OF 21N. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS A VERY STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER NE
LOUISIANA NEAR 32N91W...AND AN ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SE CONUS...GULF BASIN...AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT
A FEW SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC THAT DIPS SOUTHWARD TO A BASE IN THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 26N72W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG 23N70W TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO EAST OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N76W TO THE
NORTHERN NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 15N83W. WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS AN
INGREDIENT LACKING IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. MORE IMPORTANTLY HOWEVER IS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS
REMAIN STRONG W OF 72W GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 04/0320 UTC DEPICTED THESE NORTHERLY
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL WITHIN E-NE TRADES AND A
FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 68W-74W...FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 63W-67W...
AND S OF 14N E OF 69W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLIDING EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING
GRADUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY WITH STRONGER N-NE WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OFF THE EASTERN US SEABOARD AND
EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG 71W TO A BASE NEAR 26N. THIS TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N63W TO 23N70W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WEST OF THE FRONT AS DEPICTED BY AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND
04/0142 UTC. S-SW WINDS ALSO REMAIN STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT N
OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH
CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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