[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
WSW FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 14N8W ALONG 4N30W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES OT MOVE INTO THE ATLC BASIN THIS
EVENING...WITH THE LAST ANALYSIS SHOWING IT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 24N81W TO THE NRN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR
IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE GULF...AS MARINE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE
AREA INDICATE NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS REACHING TO GALE FORCE
CRITERIA WITHIN 100 NM ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM TAMPICO S TO
COATZACOALCOS. WHILE THE FRONT IS NOT GENERATING ANY CONVECTION
N OF 22N...SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. AFTER THE FRONT
COMPLETELY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...EXPECT WINDS OVER THE FAR SW
GULF TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HRS...BUT
REMAINING BREEZY OVER THE ERN AND SRN BASINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN PLACE OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN
THIS EVENING SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THE ONLY AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION IS NOTICED
OVER THE FAR NW BASIN...WHERE LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE DAY
SHOWED SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO ERN HONDURAS. AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS REVELED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN
THIS REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE TIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA GENERATING 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS REACHING UP TO 30 KT ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COASTS OF
HONDURAS AND NRN NICARAGUA...AS WELL AS OVER THE WRN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 24 HRS.  ALSO EXPECT SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND FAR ERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS
DRIVING A SHORTWAVE OFF THE SE CONUS SEABOARD SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION ALONG 32N71W EXTENDING SW INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 24N81W.
WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. TO
THE E OF THE FRONT...A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
SW FROM 31N67W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
22N77W. THE CONVECTION TO ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE IS SIMILAR
TO THE COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 27N WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...GENERATING
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT IT TO MERGE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND PUSH EASTWARD WITH INCREASING CONVECTION. A STRONG 1036 MB
HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 37N11W IS
DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH FAIR
WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE ITCZ
CONTINUES TO GENERATE A MODERATE TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT THAT
COVERS THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 25N-60W WITH MOSTLY ENE WINDS
AT 20 KT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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