[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 2N30W TO BRAZIL NEAR
2N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 19W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA AT
28N80W TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AT 23N92W TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
GULF FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 92W-97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
NORTH GULF STATES AND THE N GULF N OF 27N. A GALE IS OVER THE SW
GULF S OF 23N W OF 95W WITH SEAS 10-14 FT. 20-30 KT N WINDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NW OF FRONT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
PRESENTLY IN THE 40'S AND 50'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES...AND
IN THE 70S OVER S FLORIDA AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW
FLOW PREVAILS. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT IN 15 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 18 HOURS FOR THE WINDS TO BE LESS THAN GALE
FORCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR FREEZE WARNINGS TO BE IN EFFECT
FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 85W-88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NAMELY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...COSTA RICA... AND
NICARAGUA...AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE ATLANTIC TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N79W TO COCOA BEACH FLORIDA. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E FROM 32N69W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 24N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N57W TO 30N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 36N18W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE
HIGH TO 31N40W THUS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS
EASTERLY FLOW FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN W AFRICA AND 40W. A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC PRODUCING 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 15N-25N E OF 40W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N24W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
LOW IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
15N-25N E OF 20W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH CONVECTION E OF
THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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