[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 6N15W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N25W
3N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND 20W AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 31W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS
MEXICO TO OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DEEPENING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CONUS TO 20N INTO THE W ATLC AND
CARIBBEAN. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO S OF 25N W OF 92W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
30N92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD E ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH
SUN. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE W GULF BY MON. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE TUE AND
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT
22/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA NEAR HOLGUIN
ALONG 18N82W TO OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N
W OF 68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-70W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 70W. THE
N CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN
SAT THEN DISSIPATE SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC W OF
67W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 22/0900 UTC ENTERS THE W
ATLC NEAR 32N65W ALONG 26N70W CROSSING THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
22N73W CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR HOLGUIN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO BUILD E
INTO THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A
1017 MB HIGH NEAR 25N63W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-45W SUPPORTING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N32W CONTINUING ALONG 23N40W
TO 19N49W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 17N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
27N34W ALONG 22N39W TO 18N47W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N37W TO A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 27N44W
CONTINUING ALONG 26N45W TO 23N51W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH OVER N MOROCCO. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N62W
TO E CUBA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN MORNING
BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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