[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE ITCZ ENTERING
THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W CONTINUING ALONG 6N21W 4N43W TO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 16W-26W...FROM 6N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-44W...AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 23N
W OF 92W SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS CLEARED THE
GULF. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS W OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SW GULF WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 23N W OF
91W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 29N94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF LATE TUE AND
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO BY WED
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 22/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY ALONG 19N83W THROUGH THE GULF
OF HONDURAS TO OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF
18N W OF 85W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE
THE AREA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-69W AND WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL AGAIN TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN SAT THEN DISSIPATE
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC W OF
67W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 22/0300 UTC ENTERS THE W
ATLC NEAR 32N68W ALONG 27N71W CROSSING THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W
CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA CAMAGUEY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO BUILD E INTO THE W
ATLC. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 25N64W.  AN
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N BETWEEN 33W-50W
SUPPORTING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N34W CONTINUING ALONG 24N42W TO 19N52W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N61W. A
SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N34W ALONG
22N40W TO 16N48W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
TROUGH. A RE-ENFORCING SURGE IN THE FORM OF A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT IS TRAILING THE ABOVE FEATURES EXTENDING THROUGH 32N39W TO
26N52W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N
OF 20N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF N
MOROCCO. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N62W TO E CUBA BY
SAT MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN MORNING BEFORE
STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE. HIGH PRESSURE  WILL BUILD BETWEEN
N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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