[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA
NEAR 5N9W TO 5N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N11W TO 4N16W
2N21W 2N30W AND 2N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 11W AND 20W...AND
FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W...ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 44W...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W...AND ALONG THE
BRAZIL COAST FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W...BROKEN
LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 45W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N64W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 27N70W...TO 24N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MIDDLE LEVEL WIND FLOW NEAR THIS SPOT IS DUE
WESTERLY. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N66W TO 30N70W...ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA AND THE NORTHERN ABACO
ISLANDS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 25N87W IN THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 84W AND 91W...INCLUDING IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N71W
26N67W 31N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY
A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N81W. A 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES THE COLD FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
GALE WARNING...AT 30 HOURS...A 30N92W 26N97W COLD FRONT...
30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF 28N. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N75W TO 13N79W 11N80W...BEYOND
PANAMA ALONG 81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE
WEST OF 72W. SOME OF THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
REACHING THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA
TO COLOMBIA.

BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 64W AND 78W...
AND FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 81W AND 91W COVERING PARTS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N78W
AT THE COLOMBIA COAST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THROUGH
8N81W IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA INTO SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA...BEYOND 9N85W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG
THE PANAMA COAST BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA
COASTS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN 24 HOURS...
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO
28N32W 20N38W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N38W TO 16N42W
13N50W AND 13N60W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N25W 29N30W 26N35W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
26N35W TO 24N40W AND 22N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT IS ALONG 15N41W
23N31W 28N24W BEYOND 32N19W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 45W AND 56W.

BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N63W
BEYOND 32N50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N36W...TO 27N44W AND 22N58W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N16W ALONG THE COAST
OF MAURITANIA TO 10N25W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N11W...ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO 24N26W 18N32W AND 11N34W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...THE GALE WARNING...AT 12 HOURS...TO THE NORTH
OF 30N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W AND 12 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.
A SECOND AREA OF 20 KNOTS OF WIND OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N35W 23N47W. A THIRD AREA
OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET IS
TO THE WEST OF A 31N68W 26N80W COLD FRONT...TO 75W. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 60W. A FOURTH AREA OF CONCERN
IS IN 36 HOURS...A COLD FRONT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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