[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W
TO 5N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N13W TO 1N26W 2N38W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 2S45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
4N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 11W...FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 13W AND
17W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 3N31W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W...
TO THE EAST OF TRINIDAD AND IN COASTAL VENEZUELA...BROKEN
LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 27N77W NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 27N77W TO 24N86W
TO 22N93W AND 22N100W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 28N77W...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN
SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 26N85W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM
26N85W TO 25N90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF
24N TO THE EAST OF 91W...INCLUDING IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

A SURFACE RIDGE ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING
THROUGH 24N69W AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...TO 24N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
GALE WARNING...AT 36 HOURS...A 30N92W 26N97W COLD FRONT...
30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF 28N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 16N73W TO 12N79W...BEYOND 11N83W
THAT IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ALSO ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 82W.

BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 6N77W
AT THE COLOMBIA COAST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THROUGH
8N81W IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA INTO SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA...BEYOND 9N84W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN 30 HOURS...
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W
TO 22N38W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 22N38W TO 16N43W 14N50W
AND 14N60W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N27W 30N30W 26N36W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N36W
TO 24N40W AND 22N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT IS ALONG 15N41W
22N33W 27N27W BEYOND 32N20W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 44W AND 54W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 201N66W
BEYOND 32N54W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N40W...TO 28N49W...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N57W...TO 24N69W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N16W ALONG THE COAST
OF MAURITANIA TO 10N25W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO 28N24W 23N28W
15N31W AND 6N31W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...THE GALE WARNING...AT 24 HOURS...TO THE NORTH
OF 30N BETWEEN 48W AND 65W AND 12 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.
A SECOND AREA OF 20 KNOTS OF WIND OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N35W 23N48W. A THIRD AREA
OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IS TO THE
WEST OF A 31N73W 27N80W COLD FRONT...TO 78W. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 67W AND THE FRONT. A FOURTH AREA OF CONCERN IS IN
48 HOURS...A COLD FRONT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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