[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W
TO 5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W TO 5N18W 6N30W 5N36W
2N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 8N
BETWEEN 29W AND 40W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
3N TO 6N BETWEEN 21W AND 29W AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 51W AND
55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER-SCALE AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO
26N86W IN THE EAST CENTRAL SECTION...TO 23N90W AND TO 20N98W
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND IS PUSHING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 25N49W TO 20N62W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
16N69W...TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
COLOMBIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO THE EAST OF 67W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 83W/84W FROM 13N IN EASTERN COASTAL
NICARAGUA TO 20N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 76W IN
EASTERN JAMAICA AND 85W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 7N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N81W
IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...BEYOND 7N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 77W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 60W AND 81W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THIS SITUATION
INCLUDES 30 KNOT WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST...AT
THE 24 HOUR AND AT THE 48 HOUR TIMES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE
DISSIPATED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N74W BEYOND 32N69W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST
OF 70W...AN IN SURFACE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

ONE COMPARATIVELY LARGER AREA OF LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 20W AND 60W. TWO SEPARATE MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS SPANNED THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN
WATERS INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS 24 HOURS AGO. THOSE TWO
INDIVIDUAL AREAS HAVE COMBINED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 26N44W 20N59W...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 14N67W...TO NORTHERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR
11N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N32W 27N40W 25N47W.
A STATIONARY FRONT STARTS NEAR 32N26W TO 26N30W 20N37W AND
16N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W...AND
FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N52W 11N55W 8N57W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 62W...AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN
51W AND 55W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 35N55W THROUGH 30N63W TO 26N72W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 73W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO
TO 24N26W AND 16N34W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
WITH A 30N35W 25N46W SURFACE TROUGH...AND 20 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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