[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA AND IT DOES NOT REACH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA
NEAR 6N10W 5N20W 4N30W 5N42W...INTO COASTAL BRAZIL/NEAR THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N51W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN
28W AND 38W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER-SCALE AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO
26N86W IN THE EAST CENTRAL SECTION...TO 23N93W AND TO 19N96W
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND IS PUSHING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 25N49W TO 20N62W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
16N69W...TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
COLOMBIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO THE EAST OF 67W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N80W 17N83W 13N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N78W
THROUGH 8N81W IN PANAMA...TO 9N85W IN COASTAL COSTA RICA...
BEYOND 7N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST
OF 78W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N
BETWEEN 65W AND 80W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THIS SITUATION
INCLUDES 30 KNOT WINDS AND 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE COLOMBIA COAST...AT THE 24 HOUR AND AT THE 48 HOUR TIMES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO 31N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 31N77W TO 28N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
WEST OF 70W...AN IN SURFACE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

ONE COMPARATIVELY LARGER AREA OF LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 20W AND 60W. TWO SEPARATE MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS SPANNED THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN
WATERS INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS 24 HOURS AGO. THOSE TWO
INDIVIDUAL AREAS HAVE COMBINED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 25N49W 20N62W...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 16N69W...TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA
OF NORTHEASTERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N32W 27N40W 25N47W. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N26W 31N27W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
31N27W TO 26N30W 20N37W AND 16N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN
25W AND 29W...AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN
40W AND 57W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N53W 12N54W 9N55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 34N56W THROUGH 31N63W TO 27N72W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 73W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO
TO 24N26W AND 14N30W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
WITH A 30N35W 25N46W 27N65W FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND 20 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A 21N35W 14N53W 12N61W
STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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