[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W CONTINUING TO 6N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N26W TO 4N35W THEN RESUMES NEAR 6N40W TO 11N48W
THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N53W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. THE BREAKS
IN THE ITCZ ARE DUE TO A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE EASTERN
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N33W TO 5N39W AND THE WESTERN
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N48W TO 8N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 30W-36W AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MORNING ANCHORED BY A
1027 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 23N93W TO NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE E GULF ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 84W-90W AND BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE COAST OF CUBA E OF 83W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF EARLY WED STALLING IN THE
CENTRAL GULF LATE WED INTO EARLY THU AND DISSIPATING LATE THU AS
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS IN FROM THE NE THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE NE
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 84W AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
11N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER W PANAMA/COSTA RICA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 73W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027
MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N62W SW TO 23N64W WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E ALONG 49W BETWEEN 20N-31N AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN
50W-61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
24N58W JUST TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N62W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N
TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N40W
TO 22N34W SUPPORTING A 1004 MB LOW N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH 32N41W TO 27N43W. A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 22N33W TO
BEYOND 32N29W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE FROM 22N35W TO BEYOND 32N36W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 37W ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH E OF THE AZORES. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER
MUCH OF THE W ATLC S OF 27N THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING S OF
25N TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH STARTING WED AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF
THE AREA WEAKENS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY CLIP THE WATERS N OF 30N
LATE WED AND THU WITH HIGH PRES SURE REBUILDING IN FROM THE N ON
FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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