[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W CONTINUING TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W TO 6N34W THEN RESUMES NEAR 6N39W TO 9N48W
THEN RESUMES NEAR 8N53W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. THE BREAKS
IN THE ITCZ ARE DUE TO A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE EASTERN
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N32W TO 6N37W AND THE WESTERN
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N47W TO 8N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 2N31W TO 3N34W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 11 TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 55W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 25N93W TO NEAR
GALVESTON TEXAS AND INCLUDES A PORTION OF SW LOUISIANA. EASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE SE GULF ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N
TO THE COAST OF CUBA E OF 85W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E THROUGH TUE. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF EARLY WED STALLING IN THE CENTRAL
GULF LATE WED INTO EARLY THU AND DISSIPATING LATE THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS IN FROM THE NE THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN
MAINLY SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N
W OF 84W...IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INLAND OVER W PANAMA/COSTA
RICA AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 11N W OF 80W...AND N
OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-72W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026
MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N62W SW TO 21N67W WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E ALONG 50W BETWEEN 20N-31N AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
21N-30N BETWEEN 50W-62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NEAR THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N61W TO 20N68W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND S OF 20N TO OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLAND AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N40W TO 22N37W SUPPORTING A
1006 MB LOW NEAR 32N42W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO
25N44W. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E ALONG 30W/31W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM
20N35W TO BEYOND 32N37W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 35W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH E OF
THE AZORES. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE E THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY CLIP THE WATERS N OF 30N LATE WED AND THU WITH
HIGH PRES REBUILDING IN FROM THE N ON FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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