[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 30/0000 UTC IS NEAR 30.1N
91.1W MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 50 MI S
OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA...OR ABOUT 60 MI W OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ISAAC IS
PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING HAZARDS FROM STORM SURGE AND INLAND
FLOODING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN
88W-93W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK AT 29/2100 UTC IS NEAR 25.3N
47.6W. KIRK IS MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY...MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN
46W-49W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N36W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 13N38W.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 38W-43W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SEE ABOVE
FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 36W/38W TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

AN ITCZ IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N53W TO 14N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 20W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DOMINATE FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS T.S. ISAAC
CENTERED INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA. SEE ABOVE. OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER
THE GULF N OF 24N E OF 94W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND N FLORIDA. THE W GULF AND THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE IN CONTRAST HAVE FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT LINGERING
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEN EXPECT ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF ISAAC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
SE-S RETURN FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF BY FRI.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W. A 1016 MB
ISOBAR RUNS N OF HISPANIOLA. THE RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W ESPECIALLY OVER W HONDURAS AND EL
SALVADOR. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF CUBA AT 20N80W ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. KIRK...AND THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 13N38W ARE THE
DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURES IN THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N61W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1023 MB HIGH IS
ALSO CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N19W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A STRONG OUTBREAK OF SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED ON GOES-R
IMAGERY AND METEOSAT-9 SAL PRODUCT FROM 17N-30N E OF 25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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