[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 201152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON AT 20/1200 UTC IS NEAR 37.7N
23.2W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 115 MILES/180 KM TO THE ENE
OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 13 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 38N TO
40N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 32N TO 44N BETWEEN 16W AND 27W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N ALONG THE WAVE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 17 TO 22 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
IF IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN
STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN
AIR FORE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W FROM A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N ALONG THE WAVE TO 21N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
7N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 27W...AND WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 6N49W 8N43W 13N39W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
7N TO 22N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 21N27W 16N29W 12N28W TO THE WEST OF
THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W FROM 10N TO 17N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
11N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
10N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W FROM
11N TO 19N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 83W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GAMBIA NEAR 13N16W
TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N21W...
TO 10N25W 14N31W 13N38W...TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 15N41W...TO 10N50W AND TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL
SURINAME NEAR 6N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH LOUISIANA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...REACHING 26N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N80W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 27N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
TO 26N93W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 95W
AND 98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS NORTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 24N.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE
EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTION...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS WIND FLOW IS
CONNECTED TO THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N61W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...TO 22N85W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ABOUT 60 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 66W TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N...REACHING CENTRAL VENEZUELA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 73W/74W IN COLOMBIA...
TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 74W AND SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 69W AND 80W...TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 84W
INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN 36 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N41W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 29N43W...AND THEN A SHEAR AXIS
FROM 29N43W TO 29N54W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 29N54W TO
A 24N57W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N64W JUST OUTSIDE
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A TROUGH GOES FROM THE
24N57W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 23N68W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 28N30W 26N32W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF
27N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N28W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N61W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...
TO 22N85W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N41W THAT
IS FORECAST TO BE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 16N50W
IN 24 HOURS AND TO BE NEAR 16N58W IN 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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