[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 201144
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
115 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN
AZORES.

A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF
IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AN AIR FORE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SOME DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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