[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON AT 20/0600 UTC IS NEAR 37.3N
25.2W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 20 MILES/30 KM TO THE NORTH
OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE AZORES...AND ABOUT 40 MILES/65 KM
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES.
GORDON IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 17 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 70 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 37N
TO 38N BETWEEN 24W AND 25W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 37N TO 42N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N39W TO 18N41W
TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N41W. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 17 TO 22 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND
48W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 37W
AND 41W AND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN
30W AND 47W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N20W TO A 1011 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N21W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W
AND 26W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 21N BETWEEN
19W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N50W 14N51W 11N50W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 13N
BETWEEN 51W AND 52W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N80W 16N81W
12N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
11N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH STARTS NEAR 13N21W TO 12N24W 14N32W 15N41W
11N50W AND 7N57W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W...FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 37W AND
38W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 37W AND 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH LOUISIANA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...REACHING 26N93W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS. A SQUALL LINE IS ALONG 29N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO 27N87W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N94W IN
THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 25N TO 28N
BETWEEN 79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 94W.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE
EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTION...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS WIND FLOW IS
CONNECTED TO THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL
CYCLONE...20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ABOUT 60 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 64W TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N...REACHING CENTRAL VENEZUELA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W TO 7N76W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS
THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...BEYOND 8N82W IN PANAMA. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA
FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 36N44W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 30N44W AND 29N46W. A SHEAR
AXIS CONTINUES FROM 29N46W TO 29N56W...TO A 24N56W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N64W JUST OUTSIDE THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ANOTHER BRANCH OF A TROUGH GOES FROM THE 24N56W CYCLONIC CENTER
TO 23N68W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN
50W AND 64W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 26N32W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH
OF 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N36W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 27N61W...TO JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
27N78W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N41W THAT
IS FORECAST TO BE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 16N49W IN
24 HOURS AND TO BE NEAR 16N57W IN 48 HOURS. A SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IS
TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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