[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 200555
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE EASTERN
AZORES ISLANDS ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND AND ABOUT
40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE LARGE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD
AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF THE DISTURBANCE
REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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