[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 97.8W AT
10/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 85 NM NW OF OAXACA MEXICO AND ABOUT 115 NM
SW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MOVING W AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 92W-104W. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION
HOWEVER IS SW OF A LINE FROM 22N98W TO 19N92W ACROSS THE SW GULF
WATERS AND INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 47.2W AT
10/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 810 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVING W
AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 46W-48W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N19W TO 20N18W MOVING WNW AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA IN THE PAST 6
HOURS AND EXHIBITS VERY DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE
LOW-LEVELS WITH A 1004 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
15N19W. GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT IF THE LOW HOLDS
TOGETHER WITH SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION...IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 18W-21W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N69W TO 26N64W MOVING NW AT 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS FLORENCE WITH
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
64W-67W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N85W TO 23N81W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE LIES BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N81W. DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
PROVIDING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONVECTION REMAINS VERY
LIMITED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-22N BETWEEN 81W-83W AND IS LIKELY MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ITSELF.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N21W TO
12N27W TO 14N39W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS
FROM 10N49W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07N-11N BETWEEN 19W-24W...AND FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 48W-53W...AND
FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 56W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN LOCATED NORTH OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 23N99W AND IS PROVIDING
NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WITH ERNESTO WEAKENING
INLAND...MOSTLY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RESULT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST N
OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-92W...AND OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 83W-85W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG 28N WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FORECAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N81W
AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 75W-85W. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MOST DRY AIR IS FOUND E OF 70W ALOFT AND THIS
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HOWEVER ARE
NOTED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 68W...INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
19N81W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NORTHWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO 30N78W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AND AROUND THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND GENERATE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N BETWEEN
69W-81W. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THIS AREA IS ALSO
PROVIDING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN
60W-67W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALL LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N60W TO 28N79W THEN
WESTWARD ALONG 28N INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER
EAST...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLC AND REMAINS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 32N47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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