[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 111452
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF NATE HAS ACTUALLY
MOVED A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...KEEPING
THE CENTER OFFSHORE UP TO THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...WITH
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING ANYWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION. BASED
ON A BLEND OF DVORAK NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A RECENT 40-KT
SHIP OBSERVATION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 40 KT. NATE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AFTER IT MOVES INLAND...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

AFTER SOME JUMPING AROUND BETWEEN THE FINAL AIRCRAFT FIX OVERNIGHT
AND THE SATELLITE FIXES THIS MORNING...THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS
TO BE AROUND 275/8. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 20.4N  96.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 20.5N  97.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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