[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE AT 10/1200 UTC IS NEAR 20.0N
94.0W...OR ABOUT 135 NM TO THE E-NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT
200 NM E-SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO. NATE IS MOVING W AT 4 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA AT 10/1200 UTC IS NEAR 16.9N
61.2W...OR ABOUT 45 NM TO THE N-NE OF GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT 295
NM E-SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NW
AT 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO
20N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 64W.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA AT 10/0900 UTC IS NEAR 43.3N
53.4W. IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST 38 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 970 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/
WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KATIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 43N51W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N37W 12N41W 5N45W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 17N BETWEEN 33W AND
57W. SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE RELATED JUST TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH EASTERN
JAMAICA ALONG 77W/78W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
COLOMBIA COAST ALONG 10N75W BEYOND CENTRAL COSTA RICA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN
73W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N15W
TO 8N18W AND 10N25W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN LAND AND 16W...
AND WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 8N28W. ISOLATED MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM NATE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE LINE FROM 29N80W...TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...TO 20N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM AN
ALREADY-DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG THE LINE FROM THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST NEAR 30N81W TO 25N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST AND 84W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS IN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...ACROSS CUBA...
TO 18N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N63W CYCLONIC CENTER TOWARD THE MONA PASSAGE.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. AN UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA...FROM THE COASTAL
SECTIONS INLAND ALONG 66W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN
60W AND 70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST
ALONG 10N75W BEYOND CENTRAL COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...PASSING THROUGH EASTERN JAMAICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF
17N BETWEEN 73W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF 25N80W 29N73W BEYOND 33N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N20W
TO 27N24W...TO A 27N38W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 20N42W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N35W TO 30N73W THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 73W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net