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WTNT34 KNHC 101149
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
800 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011

...MARIA LOSING ORGANIZATION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 61.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...SAINT
KITTS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. BARTHELEMY AND ST. MARTEEN
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA
CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DEFINED.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MARIA
COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM MARIA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST.  MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15
MPH...24 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
BY LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS MARIA MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  HOWEVER...MARIA COULD DEGENERATE TO
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND THEN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO BY THE END OF THE DAY.

RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



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