[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 15N17W TO 12N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT
TO 6N30W 3N40W 4N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S
OF THE ITCZ FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 20W-31W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FURTHER W ALONG 9N52W 5N50W PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 44W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 25N80W 23N84W 20N86W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
REMAINS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 93W. CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER
TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND THE NW GULF. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT. EXPECT
...THE FRONT TO LINGER OVER THE SAME AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN ALONG 23N84W 20N86W 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1008 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N81W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM 6N-21N BETWEEN 79W-84W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 70W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
30N65W TO 27N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE N
BAHAMAS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 77W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N41W
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 25N65W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 23N46W 17N49W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
17N-22N BETWEEN 39W-44W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO LINGER OVER THE SAME AREA WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net