[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W ALONG 4N24W TO NEAR 2N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
THIS POINT ALONG 1N37W TO NEAR 2N42W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 19W-33W...AND S OF 10N W OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
RUNNING PARALLEL WITH THE N-WRN COAST OF CUBA...AND INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 24N81W 23N84W 21N86W. THIS BOUNDARY IS
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS SEABOARD AND N-WRN ATLC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM N OF THE FRONT. GUSTY NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT PREVAIL ON THE
EASTERN GULF N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF 87W. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOCUSES ON THE WRN AND S-WRN BASINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW BASIN ALONG 21N86W TO NEAR 16N86W.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE E AND SE OF THIS FEATURE...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM INLAND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR THE
CITY OF SANTA CLARA...SOUTHWARD ALONG 18N82W TO A 1008 MB LOW
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL GYRE AROUND 13N81W. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FEATURES ARE GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS W OF 76W. WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...THE
MONSOON GYRE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM NRN COSTA RICA TO THE LOW
CENTER...THEN TO THE NRN COLOMBIA COAST WITH SIMILAR CONVECTION
S OF 13N W OF 73W. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA... WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN
THE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW. THIS IS DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
13N70W. DESPITE THE NATURE OF THIS FLOW...THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT COMING FROM THE
SW ATLC BASIN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD
AND N-WRN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N67W THAT CONTINUES SW TO 26N74W...
BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 100-130 NM N OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1026
MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 32N40W AND 32N32W. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
HOWEVER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 22N44W TO 17N47W AS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N44W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TO THE
EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 40W-44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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