[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241818 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...UPDATED FOR RINA...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 83.0W AT 24/1815 UTC OR
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN...OR ABOUT 370 MI...
595 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MOVING NW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 82W-85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 80W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W CONTINUING ALONG 14N30W 14N44W THROUGH A 1011
MB LOW NEAR 13N46W TO 11N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N E OF 10W...AND FROM 2N-7N
BETWEEN 13W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-15N BETWEEN 26W-32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 43W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDGED IN BETWEEN A
1019 MB LOW AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND
HURRICANE RINA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT OVER TEXAS TO DISSIPATE AND FOR SURFACE RIDGING TO PERSIST
OVER THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE RINA IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS JUST W OF
GRENADA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE ENTIRE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 60W-69W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND E
CUBA...AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
60W-63W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR RINA TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY WHILE THE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SPREADS
W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N76W TO THE N
BAHAMAS AT 26N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
33N41W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N39W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
E OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 33W-38W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
30N66W TO 25N70W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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