[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281709
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST THROUGH 11N15W IN
GUINEA TO 9N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N18W TO 7N30W AND
7N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...BEYOND
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA ABOUT 50 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS...AND
THEN CURVING THROUGH HONDURAS INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
WITHIN 200 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS...
THROUGH 30N82W 23N83W 16N84W. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE
ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N66W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 17N69W 15N74W 12N76W AND 10N77W. THE
EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FIND THEMSELVES ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING
NEARLY 24 HOURS AGO FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. THAT
COVERAGE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD WITH TIME. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS NOW ARE
COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO
18N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W. THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS
STRONG DURING THE NEARLY 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD...STRONG ENOUGH
IN ORDER TO GIVE A 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 2.42 INCHES TO
GUADELOUPE...AND 1.28 INCHES TO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. TRINIDAD
REPORTED A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 0.80 INCHES. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS...AND THEN
CURVING THROUGH HONDURAS INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
WITHIN 200 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS...
THROUGH 30N82W 23N83W 16N84W. MERIDA REPORTED A 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL OF 0.75 INCHES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 65W
FROM 11N TO 22N. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
IN SCATTEROMETER WINDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO 10N77W...
TO 10N AT THE COSTA RICA COAST...CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO
28N58W...TO A 25N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N66W
AND TO 17N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO 15N74W 12N76W
10N77W. A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N39W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CURVES FROM 26N38W TO 22N40W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 30N53W 28N57W 25N61W. HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 16N TO 32N BETWEEN 31W AND 65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS NOW ARE
COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N
TO 18N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N19W...TO 16N20W AND 10N25W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 23N28W AND 13N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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