[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N50W. THE LOW CENTER IS
CONNECTED TO A WARM FRONT THAT CURVES AWAY FROM THE CENTER TO
32N47W AND 33N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 33N40W TO
32N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 22N53W AND SINT EUSTATIUS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 30N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N53W TO
20N60W...ACROSS ANGUILLA TO 17N66W...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 17N66W
TO 15N74W...TO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 32N TO 35N
BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N52W 21N48W 24N46W 28N45W...
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W...AND FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER
FORECAST WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT WITHIN 120 NM IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 TO
14 FT. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL HAS SOME FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS...AND SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
A LITTLE LESS LIKELY. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION MAY BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 8N19W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N19W TO 4N33W AND 5N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 5N
BETWEEN 14W AND 17W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W...AND
FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 25W AND 34W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
12N37W 9N38W 6N39W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
CROSSES MEXICO FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
24N. SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW SPIRALS AWAY FROM
HURRICANE KENNETH THAT IS NEAR 13N113W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. THIS ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW COVERS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH
OF 24N TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES CUBA
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A MEAN 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS...TO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO
NEAR 21N97W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N60W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS ANGUILLA TO 17N66W...ABOUT 60 NM TO
THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES
FROM 17N66W TO 15N74W...TO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL
NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SPECIAL FEATURE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 22N53W AND SINT EUSTATIUS
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO EASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA.
LARGE-SCALE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE MONA PASSAGE-TO-NICARAGUA LINE...PUSHING LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION SOUTHWESTWARD. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 16N63W TO THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 11N69W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS 11N75W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST...TO 9N77W...
AND THEN ALONG 9N/10N FROM 77W BEYOND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A MEAN 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N76W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE WEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW CENTER WITH ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE TROUGHS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND THE SPECIAL FEATURE WEATHER SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N8W...ACROSS NORTHERN MAURITANIA TO 10N23W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED
SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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