[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N51W. THE LOW CENTER IS
CONNECTED TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THAT CURVES AWAY FROM THE
CENTER TO 32N48W AND 33N42W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
33N42W TO 33N33W AND 31N25W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWEST-
WARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N51W 22N54W AND BARBUDA IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO 23N55W TO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS...TO 16N73W ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI. AN
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 16N73W TO 15N77W TO
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
16N53W 20N49W 24N47W 30N48W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER FORECAST WATERS
TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
CENTER AND WARM FRONT...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 TO
15 FT. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL HAS SOME FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS...AND SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
A LITTLE LESS LIKELY. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION MAY BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO
7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N17W TO 3N31W 7N50W...TO
NORTHERN SURINAME NEAR 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 35W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N37W 9N38W 6N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 36W...
AND FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
CROSSES MEXICO FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
24N. SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW SPIRALS AWAY FROM
HURRICANE KENNETH THAT IS NEAR 13N112W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. THIS ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW COVERS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF
24N TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES CUBA INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A MEAN 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 29N88W...TO
24N94W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF MEXICO NEAR 20N98W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N55W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO 16N73W ABOUT 100 NM
TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI. AN AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES
FROM 16N73W TO 15N77W TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA.
A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THROUGH 22N54W...AND BARBUDA IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
MONA PASSAGE TO 15N75W AND 13N83W AT THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA. LARGE-SCALE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW IS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MONA PASSAGE-TO-NICARAGUA
LINE...PUSHING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N67W 14N69W TO THE
VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 11N69W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG
9N/10N BETWEEN 76W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST...BEYOND COSTA RICA.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE
WEST OF 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A MEAN 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N75W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE WEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW CENTER WITH ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE TROUGHS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND THE SPECIAL FEATURE WEATHER SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N12W...ACROSS THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 10N26W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED
SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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