[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N51W TO 10N54W MOVING WNW AT
5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS OVER THE AREA E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH TO ITS N MENTIONED IN THE ATLC DISCUSSION BELOW.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

A SMALL PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES THROUGH WESTERN
SENEGAL NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W WITHOUT CONVECTION. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 10N18W TO 5N23W THEN WESTWARD ALONG 5N34W TO
7N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 20W. THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE ITCZ IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE MENTIONED ON THE
ATLC DISCUSSION BELOW.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 25N80W TO 22N88W WITH
VERY LIMITED CONVECTION...AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR SW BASIN
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS COVERED BY LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING ALONG
WITH THE MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW
INCREASES UP TO NEAR 30 KT OVER THE FAR ERN GULF...WITHIN 120 NM
OFF THE WRN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE OBSERVED ON SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 13N W OF 74W...ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED
ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO NRN COLOMBIA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW-TOP ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING
THE BASIN MOVING ALONG WITH THE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WRN NORTH ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
32N66W TO ACROSS THE NRN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA ALONG 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND WITHIN 30 NM N OF THE
BOUNDARY W OF 71W. FARTHER EAST...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 29N52W TO 22N56W AND A TROPICAL
WAVE TO THE S OF THE TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM 19N51W TO 10N54W...
IS GENERATING A N-S ELONGATED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 43W-51W. THE ACTIVITY IS
FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW PRODUCING STRONG
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE CONVECTION REGION. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E
OF 43W IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER SUPPORTED BY A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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