[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131714
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...DATE CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N20W
TO 5N30W TO 8N38W TO 8N45W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 13W-28W...AND FROM
4N-12N BETWEEN 28W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM N
FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 10-15 KT E-SE WINDS ARE OVER
MOST OF THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W.
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE S CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 76W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 66W-70W. BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 68W-78W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
LOW TO REMAIN STATIONARY. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N66W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO N FLORIDA. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
30N49W TO 26N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER S ALONG 25N51W 21N53W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN
44W-51W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N38W
MOVING SE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE W TO 30N43W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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